The Inevitable Collapse of Iran’s Clerical Regime? A Turning Point for the Iranian People

The Islamic Republic of Iran, for decades a powerful symbol of ideological strength and aggressive regional ambition, now faces a perhaps accelerating path toward its collapse. In recent years, it has become clear that the regime is no longer capable of holding itself together. Its ideological degeneration has spread across the military, intelligence, administrative, and state-structuring apparatus. The Iranian regime is rapidly losing any internal and external credibility it once enjoyed, and its days appear numbered.

A Regime in Crisis

The Islamic Republic’s aspirations of creating a regional empire have dissolved into a patchwork of failures. The corrupt regime’s attempts to sacrifice the people’s wealth and resources for their selfish interests and these imperial ambitions have not only drained the country but have alienated large segments of the population. According to the last year polls by GAMAAN Institute, more than 80% of Iranians inside Iran are dissatisfied with the current regime and demand change. Such opinions doom the regime to crumbling and render it unable to restore its former strength.

The Role of Israeli Attacks in Accelerating the Collapse

Israeli (and American) military operations against key regime assets have played a significant role in highlighting the regime’s vulnerability. These attacks not only damaged the regime’s military infrastructure but also serve as an opening for broader international support for the Iranian people’s struggle for freedom. With the regime’s military apparatus facing significant challenges, the Iranian people are left with the stark reality of a government unable to protect its own interests.

International support is now more crucial than ever for bolstering the resistance movements inside Iran. This support is vital in encouraging further defiance against the regime’s oppression and laying the groundwork for eventual democratic reforms. My party and others advocate a democratic, federal and secular form of governance.

The Regime’s Brutal Oppression: Human Rights Violations and Fear Tactics

The regime’s response to dissent has been marked by an increasing reliance on oppression. Iran has become notorious for its brutal tactics against its own citizens. As of January 1, 2025, a staggering 1,304 executions have been carried out, with countless others detained under harsh conditions. The regime uses executions and arbitrary detentions to instil fear and suppress the will of the people. These measures not only violate basic human rights but also show the regime’s fear of its own citizens. The regime’s primary concern is maintaining control through intimidation and force, as it has no ideological or moral authority left to command loyalty.

Unity Among Minorities and the Role of the International Community

One of the most encouraging developments in recent years is the increasing unity among Iran’s diverse ethnic minorities. Kurds, Balochs, Arabs, and other groups that form about half the country’s population have increasingly joined together in opposition to the clerical regime. This unity is a direct challenge to the regime’s strategy of divide and conquer, and it signals a growing desire for a more inclusive and democratic Iran. The international community must provide moral and practical backing to ensure the Iranian people’s struggle for freedom is not in vain.

The unity of minorities, in particular, offers a beacon of hope for the future of Iran. Their collective resistance has already been a destabilizing force, and with global support and encouragement, this unity will become even stronger. These movements are not only fighting for their own rights but for the rights of all Iranians to live in a free and just society.

Scenarios for the Regime’s Collapse

The Iranian regime faces multiple potential scenarios that could lead to its collapse:

• Negotiation and Public Defeat: Should the regime return to the negotiating table with the United States, it would likely be perceived as a defeat by the public. A potential agreement could fuel further discontent, as the regime’s concessions would be seen as capitulation, further undermining its legitimacy.
• War and Internal Struggles: A war could emerge, either as a result of external military pressure or internal miscalculations. Such a conflict would severely weaken the regime, exacerbating its already fragile position. Moreover, the death of the Supreme Leader during a war could trigger a power vacuum, intensifying internal struggles and hastening the regime’s downfall.
• Loss of Control: In the event of a strategic miscalculation, the regime could lose control over key areas of the country. In such a scenario, the increased political activity of ethnic minorities could contribute to the regime’s collapse, further destabilizing the already volatile situation.

The Path Forward: A Hope for Change

The collapse of the clerical regime in Iran is not just a matter of when, but how. The signs are clear: internal dissatisfaction is at an all-time high, and the regime is crumbling under the weight of its own failures. However, it is not too late for change. The Iranian people’s struggle for freedom is ongoing, and the international community has an opportunity to stand in solidarity with them. Support for opposition movements, condemnation of human rights violations, and recognition of the unity among Iran’s minorities can all contribute to the eventual fall of the regime and the rise of a new, democratic Iran.

I am patriotic about my country in which the Kurds are a vital element. I’d also stress that the fate of my country matters immensely to the whole world. Iran is an ancient civilisation, which has for too long been isolated due to the actions of its regime, but its people’s skills, energy reserves and pivotal geographical position impact on so many others and could do so for the betterment of all.