Donald Trump’s second and clearly comprehensive triumph entirely changes the way we must think about our continent’s security. This victory will require higher spending and deft diplomacy. One early result is that the EU is adjusting its cohesion budget to release many billions to defence and security. This is the start of a necessary reckoning of real threats to Europe.
It’s not about abandoning the American link, which sustains vital intelligence co-operation, or reversing Brexit but rapidly cohering Europe in the urgent circumstances of wars Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran are waging against us all.
Radical security calibration is overdue. Europeans have for too long been complacent in nurturing the transatlantic relationship. Trump ably weaponised festering popular anger about Americans subsidizing European security. At a veterans’ rally back in 2007 in Boston a bemedalled man angrily shouted the odds. When I spoke with him, he asked why America always carried the burden. He was not moved by the argument that America benefitted from multilateralism and stability.
Russian victory in subordinating Ukraine would tempt the Putin war machine to take a direct or hybrid potshot at vulnerable neighbours. The Times rightly argues that Europe might have to assume exclusive responsibility for sustaining Ukraine and boosting military industry integration in Europe to supply the munitions we and Ukraine need. A new Munich will cost us dear, as Paul Mason and others rightly argue.
Trump also railed against billions of dollars for Ukraine. The fear is that Trump will, in a day, settle the war on Russian terms that could kneecap Ukraine. Worst case scenarios also include Trump undermining or even quitting NATO.
America under Trump and maybe for much longer won’t be the indispensable ally we long took for granted. We don’t know how much campaign rhetoric will become policy. The former UK Ambassador to the US, Kim Darroch says that Trump mostly does what he says. We will see.
Populism in Europe will get a shot in the arm from Trump and his warriors. Martin Kettle wryly refers to “Clacton-a-Lago.” Trump’s transactional mercantilism could also mean a divide and rule approach on the 20% tariff wall he advocates. These could corrode Europe’s already fragile internal unity and willingness to resist Russia. Trump’s planned tariffs may present painful Hobson’s choices for the UK.
All is fluid and that applies to the Democrats. In our volatile world, domestic political comebacks are possible after hitting rock bottom, as Keir Starmer proved. The Democratic Party should be learning where it went so wrong and do so quickly. The party’s domestic weaknesses helped Trump into the Oval office, and they must start over.
The main lesson is that plutocratic donors and celebrity stardust don’t compensate for being dangerously disconnected on bread and butter issues such as inflation. Many voters dismissed the Democrats as elitist, aloof, and smugly self-righteous.
Bernie Sanders, over-harshly perhaps given Biden’s underestimated record, says that “it should come as no surprise that the Democratic Party, which has abandoned working class people, would find that the working class has abandoned them.” Democrat strategist James Carville’s memorable motto, “it’s the economy, stupid” needs to be dusted down by the Democrats as Trumponomics will not be plain sailing.
There is also a growing American consensus that “woke is broke” as Maureen Dowd puts it in the New York Times. Many Democrats and those associated with the party haughtily condescended to and condemned those concerned about tensions between transgender and women’s rights. Dowd quotes Massachusetts Representative Seth Moulton: “I have two little girls. I don’t want them getting run over on a playing field by a male or formerly male athlete, but as a Democrat I’m supposed to be afraid to say that.”
Hyperbolically ambiguous slogans adopted by vocal activists alienated American voters from the Democrats. Carville slams the “defund the police” mantra as the “three stupidest words in the English language.” If it means reform just say so rather than leaving the impression that you mean to abolish the police or, indeed, prisons or borders.
Serious arguments about paramilitary policing and mass incarceration are diminished by such loose talk. Iconoclasts may have points, but reformists must translate vague crassness into principled and practical policy.
Another crazy slogan from regular Gaza events is “from the river to the sea” that has genocidal implications. Some activists imbibed intersectionality so much that they hailed Hamas as liberationist and ignored or even celebrated their bestiality. Craven university leaders failed to protect Jewish students and free speech.
Performative leftism stopped Democrats building the bandwidth to tackle working class inequality and wooing rather than weirding voters. Indulging magic realism helped Trump bigly.
Trump’s victory is a warning about political disconnection, voter neglect, and asinine campus politics as well as a literal and metaphorical call to arms in Europe. Labour’s mission has suddenly become much more intensely complex as the world has shifted decisively on its axis and with severe consequences for tackling global warming too. We Europeans must now make ourselves match fit for tumultuous times with and without America.
If you enjoyed this piece, follow the link here to read Gary’s previous piece covering international politics and relations.
