For some time now, the macro pre-electoral strategy of Labour has been straightforwardly Napoleonic; never interrupt your enemy when they are making a mistake. A rich buffet of mistakes. A carnival float parade of blunders, incompetence, crookedness and circular firing squads. Labour’s plan has been a masterclass in patience.
The warm embrace of the success of that plan, however, brings with it the threat of comfort. Because the last forty-eight hours have presented, rather strangely, some good news, and even some good politics, from the Conservatives. It may well be far too little, far too late, meaningfully to change the electoral outcome, but it’s nonetheless a new context and it requires a new plan. When the enemy no longer so precisely resembles a blundering cheese-roll of tied shoelaces down a steep hill, the time for non-interruption is over.
Recent days have seen a rapid fire one-two-three punch, from which the Conservatives will be feeling energised (albeit from a baseline of monotone flatlining) as they go into what is now officially known simply as ‘the second half of the year’.
Rwanda. The Economy. Defence. Now, each of these, indeed all of these, are not true successes. Rwanda is a failed, cruel, punishingly expensive waste of energy, moral authority and time. But it is something. It’s an answer to the question of small boats (although, of course, not an answer to any questioning of the level of net immigration overall, which has nothing to do with small boats). So, sure, it’s not a good answer. It doesn’t address the actual question. Yet, with help from the media, Sunak staked a good deal of his authority on this act of distraction, and somehow it now appears actually to be happening. He is, quite literally, doing something. That, in of itself, is a standout achievement and a rare accomplishment in the last few years of policy tundra.
The economy, tanked by both global macroeconomics and Trussian whacko-economics, is recovering. Inflation rates falling, the prospect of BofE rate cuts, the FTSE at record highs, house prices stable… This might start to look to voters like the signs of The Traditional Conservative Economic Success Story (™). Now did any of Sunak’s policies actually make these things happen? It’s highly unlikely, but much as he reaped what he didn’t actually sow after Truss, he will claim credit.
Third, the announcement of a rise in defence spending to 2.5% and the (somewhat Trumpian, but nonetheless correct and welcome) challenge for European NATO members to do likewise, is also, objectively, very popular and, subjectively, very welcome. It’s traditional Conservatism, sure, saluting and singing, but it’s also smart politics.
Couple these three with the background mudslinging of Angela Rayner’s domestic arrangements, fear of rising extremism on British Streets, and the reflected glow of competence coming from David Cameron and despite the polls Sunak might start to feel he has a foundation to build on.
Even if in substance it is entirely illusory, something that looks like the Tory competence and coherence that has kept them in power for 15 years is starting to emerge as the cold political ground of a hard winter thaws to spring.
The local elections in May might be a return to catastrophic form for the Prime Minister. But it’s time to ask if he is still making mistakes. If not, it’s time to interrupt.
This column is part of media strategist Alex Hesz’s ‘Mission Messaging’ series for Progressive Britain. If you enjoyed this piece, check out the previous instalment, Why are we waiting?
