The high octane theatrics of recent weeks in Washington have frazzled and terrified the world. It’s all been great TV as Donald Trump revealingly said after kneecapping the Ukrainian President in the Oval Office and in his big bang announcement on tariffs. Will Hutton eloquently nails the fundamental flaws in that policy. Together with changes in American security policy, these are forcing revision of old norms by social democrats and others.
We have no idea how long this shock and awe will carry on or if it’s a flash in the pan. The reported Trump slump in tourism could become an economic slump for American voters who will judge whether Trump is sunny side up for them by ‘eggflation’ and hikes in products such as the newest iPhone which could leap from $1600 to $2300. There could be a damaging brain drain of highly valued scientists and researchers. Republican Ted Cruz warns of an electoral bloodbath for his party if Liberation Day triggers a recession.
That could stall Trump’s bluster in the mid-terms and before the presidential elections in 2028, assuming he cannot defy the constitution and win a third term. American Democrats could become much more weighty.
Hilary Clinton mocks the Pentagon purging images of the plane that dropped the atomic bomb because its name is the Enola Gay. Woke? Wow. She concludes that Trump’s America will be increasingly blind and blundering, feeble and friendless.
Even if Trumpism recedes, the tsunamis it has triggered on many shores will have done tremendous and lasting damage. Nuclear proliferation is likely. Small countries hammered by high tariffs will rethink their alliances.
Vietnam, for instance, faces a 46% tariff. Vietnam had positioned itself as an alternative manufacturing centre to China for the West. This will become harder for Vietnam and probably deprive America of a vital ally where there is widespread distrust and even hatred of China, the colonial power for a thousand years.
Overall, the precious commodity of trust in America has been carelessly discarded. Keir Starmer is rightly deploying the still thick intelligence and other links of “the special relationship” to keep America onside as vital to our interests. The UK’s export of services is worth £160 billion and not subject to tariffs. We have to box clever to keep as many of our advantages as possible.
An abrupt rupture would be dangerous and massively expensive. But many countries feel unable to count on America. In these circumstances, the UK and Europe cannot calculate our national security on maybes and hunches. We should keep calm and carry on, but a better motto is “Don’t mourn, organise” – the epitaph of the American trade union leader, Joe Hill. We must now organise our own defence with European partners in coalitions of the willing, and double down on defending Ukraine and reindustrializing our economy.
The challenges from Russia and China plus Iran and North Korea profoundly imperil our security, economy, and society. Russian success in subordinating Ukraine would be disastrous morally and tempt Russia to go further to split NATO, dominate or even seize allies that escaped the Russian orbit, threaten our trade and weaken our ability to deter sabotage of undersea data and energy links. The government must continue to expose these threats. Hard-left critiques of rearming and the so-called “coalition of the killing” ignore these threats.
Military Keynesianism can also boost quality jobs and growth in the longer term. Labour must once again lead the drive to rearm at pace (including ensuring our weapons are independent) and that requires new funding in the shorter term. Paul Mason advocates borrowing and a windfall tax on defence companies, which will boom during the next decade.
Many party members say we should impose a wealth tax and rejoin the European Union in some way. I thought rejoining was impossible if the EU feared reversing Brexit could itself be reversed in short order. Rejoining may prove impossible but closer co-operation on security could unlock a better relationship.
I also thought that arguing for what we crave in any circumstances, often mistaking our desires as popular or risk-free, would breach our manifesto but election pledges are not sacrosanct when there are huge changes in our material circumstances.
And they don’t come bigger than what we are now seeing. Former Brexiteer, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard powerfully argues that Trump’s near-complete destruction of the post-war trading and security system leaves the UK as a little rowing boat bobbing about on the rough oceans.
Back in January, I wrote here that as geopolitics becomes ever more volatile, we must be ever more agile. I had little inkling of the many Trumplications that have emerged since then, but they require a steely realism.
Keir Starmer outlines how that can be done. He writes that old assumptions can no longer be taken for granted because the world as we knew it has gone. Industrial policy could help shelter British business from the storm. The old consensus that the state should not intervene directly to shape the market should be dropped. Just as we have gone further and faster on national security, we must do the same on economic security through strengthened alliances and reducing barriers to trade. In summary, he says, “Strength abroad. Security at home.” Amen to that.
Click here to read another of Gary’s pieces for the PB blog.
