With Trump back in the White House, a destructive war raging between Russia and Ukraine, economic stagnation across much of the EU, the cost-of-living crisis pummeling European electorates, and social democrats struggling in the face of a populist far right resurgence, there are reasons to be downbeat about the future of progressive politics in Europe.
Nonetheless, the mood at last years’ Oxford Symposium, co-hosted by Progressive Britain, the Foundation for European Progressive Studies (FEPS) and the Renner Institute was markedly more optimistic than this bleak context would suggest. One major reason was of course Labour’s landslide victory this summer, which proved a rare exception in a year marked by the defeat of left leaning politicians and the increasing dominance of the far right in Europe.
Amid the many UK and European politicians, academics and activists at the symposium who voiced their opinions on topics as wide-ranging as social democracy, industrial policy, public service reform and how to counteract the rise of the far-right, four key messages stood out:
The far-right are an increasing threat that progressives must take seriously.
With far-right parties on the precipice of power in France and Austria and successfully established in Swedish, Dutch and Italian governments, far right populism is on the rise in Europe. Whilst the resurgence of extreme populism is symptomatic of the pull of fear-mongering politics, it should not be only understood as a conspiratorial movement or articulation of fear. Rather it also stems from a deep disillusionment with establishment politics, fatalism about worsening socio-economic divides, and declining faith in national institutions.
These evocative and legitimate themes are blended with xenophobia and scapegoating of various other kinds (climate, ‘woke’) to create the perception of a situation that only an outsider right can tackle. They bridge the gap between the historically unpopular far right agenda and the political needs of today.
Consider how Giorgia Meloni, Italy’s prime minister and standard-bearer for far-right political palatability, roused legitimate voter concerns about immigration, declining birth rates and standards of living, to weave a carefully constructed anti-foreign and pro-nationalist, anti-woke, Christian revival campaign able to capture voters of the far right and centre. Her statement “I am Giorgia. I am a woman. I am a mother. I am Italian, I am a Christian.” is a perfect example of how the more sophisticated elements of the new far right can speak to their historic base and the centre at the same time. Indeed, Meloni’s approval ratings stand at 57%.
With only a handful of shaky centre left governments in the EU remaining, the sense of democratic norms being under siege has become a daily reality. Progressives must aptly contend with the reality of the far-right resurgence and construct their own identities to counter such trends – perhaps most prominently they must seize the idea of patriotism, and give it a new meaning, grounded in the protection of communities from the economic ravages of the unbridled market, and a reassertion of the duty of the state to protect its citizens from the impact of the climate crisis. As Roosevelt asserted in his 1941 State of Union Address, the politics of fear can be defeated by the offer of freedom from fear, but only when this promise is backed up with delivery can people really start to believe it.
Governments must eschew gesture politics or virtue signaling and focus on improving the lives of ordinary working people and families.
In a cautionary tale for a Labour party which ran on the slogan ‘Change,’ whilst adopting the slogan ‘Action’ Pedro Nuno Santos’ Partido Socialista in Portugal incurred heavy electoral losses in 2024 by its very failure to act. Focusing attention on heavy-handed state-backed infrastructure projects (later belied by several high-profile corruption scandals) left key public services, namely healthcare and transport, badly neglected, catalysing public anger and leading to the far-right Chega party gaining 38 seats.
Even though progressives across the European continent face a brutal portfolio of challenges, there is still room for manoeuvre using the many tools available to the state and to fulfil the promises made to voters in such slogans.
Big infrastructure projects are one such tool and have characterized state-led efforts to stimulate economic growth both here in Britain and across the Atlantic. The UK’s Industrial Strategy green paper has already demarcated the so-called ‘high growth industries’ it will focus on. Its renewed focus on green or clean energy industries offers one avenue for EU countries to compete with China, especially when Germany’s automotive sector seems to be paying the price for its sluggish attempts to embrace electrification.
Although carving out industrial strategy is certainly integral to accessing private finance, the failure of ‘Bideneconomics’ to secure a second term for the Democrats and a first term for Harris should be a wake-up call to progressives across Europe that big project delivery is not the be all and end all. ‘Deliverism’ is not a straight-forward solution for progressives- if there is one lesson to learn from the US election it is that ignoring bread and butter issues like inflation does not win elections.
Defence policy is another piece of the puzzle – progressives should embrace it
The Progressive centre-left has often recoiled from articulating a strong approach to defence policy, equating it with militarism. However, Keir Starmer’s leadership has been keen to stress the point that Attlee’s reforming Labour government of 1945 took the lead in establishing the North Atlantic Alliance in 1949, facing up to the Soviet threat in Europe. A key weakness for the far right is its division over Russia’s war on Ukraine, with leaders such as Viktor Órban of Hungary and President Andrzej Duda of Poland split over the issue. This provides an opening for progressives, who are united behind support for Ukraine, to take the lead in conversations around defence and stress the protection they can offer their citizens from hostile and dangerous adversaries intent on undermining Western democracies.
Over defence policy, European progressives must think wider than the provision of military aid, and to reassert that ‘defence’ incorporates areas such as electoral integrity, energy security, and cybersecurity, reinforcing the need to invest in sovereign capabilities and industrial capacity.
These arguments can in turn support national investment in key infrastructure and reinforce the necessity of developing independent green energy here in the UK. The struggles of a Germany over-reliant on cheap Russian gas after the outbreak of the Ukraine war is a powerful illustration of the importance of such diversification.
A reset is needed but what shape this will take will differ across Europe
Trump’s electoral success in November 2024 served to confirm fears among progressives that a new direction, energy and identity would be needed to check the resurgence of the populist right. Keir Starmer’s strict formulation of a fiscally competent Labour party no doubt played a crucial role in Labour’s landslide win and building voter trust, but it still needs to build solid credentials through reaching some of its policy benchmarks in areas such as economic growth and reform of health care.
While the challenges are similar, what makes Austrian and French voters turn back to the centre left will be different – responding to the political needs of those countries. Similarly, it is not enough for Labour in Britain to just avoid some of the pitfalls which have befallen its sister parties in power. A new, distinctly British offer for distinctly British problems must be developed.
After many years of Tory attacks on the state, Labour now needs to deliver on its key missions and clearly demonstrate how these success stories go towards building a better future for the UK.
