The sudden collapse of Assad’s regime in Syria significantly diminished Iran’s regime, which poured an estimated $30 billion into propping up Assad. Assad fell within weeks of the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah and the primary losers in this geopolitical shift are undoubtedly the ruling clerics in Tehran.
The fall of Assad has sparked speculation that the Iranian regime itself may be next. Today, it is more isolated and weaker than ever, facing huge internal and external challenges.
Iran’s economic woes are deepening. Its currency continues to plummet, and the country is grappling with electricity and gas shortages, despite its huge energy reserves. The government’s mismanagement from failed internet filtering plans to inconsistent economic policies has only exacerbated problems. Confusion at the leadership level is causing serious disruptions, leaving Iranian citizens increasingly disillusioned and voicing their frustrations.
The Islamic Republic’s strategy of exporting its revolutionary ideology has destabilised neighbouring countries for years. Wherever Iran’s influence extends, such as in Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria, chaos follows through civil unrest, government corruption, and the spread of drug trafficking. Tehran has been a source of terrorism, instability, and crisis in the Middle East and globally.
Iran’s so-called “axis of resistance” is now crumbling, losing allies one by one. With Assad’s fall and reduced Russian support, the “Shia Crescent” from Tehran to the Mediterranean is weakening.
Iran’s ability to project power through proxies is diminishing, creating an opportunity for a direct attack by the US and Israel against nuclear facilities.
In the wake of its significant loss in Syria, divisions within Iran’s leadership are becoming more evident. Even among its security forces, military defeats and operational challenges have sparked growing distrust and dissatisfaction.
Rumours about the declining health of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei compound the regime’s precarious position. Propaganda efforts, once a powerful tool for the government, are losing their efficacy as people become increasingly aware of its failures. Even the regime’s most
ardent supporters are questioning its long-standing rhetoric about defeating Israel. The threats against Israel now appear to be little more than empty bravado although global policy-makers are wary that the regime may double down and seek usable nuclear weapons.
For over four decades, the Iranian regime has maintained its grip on power through oppression, executions, threats, and the imprisonment of freedom fighters, particularly targeting Kurds and other minorities. But its legitimacy has eroded both domestically and internationally.
For decades, Iranian Kurdistan has been treated as a militarised zone, with the regime viewing civil, cultural, and environmental activities through a security lens. Despite this, the Kurdish movement for democracy and federalism remain deeply rooted in the resistance. Recent movements like “Women, Life, Freedom” exemplify the continued fight for equality and justice.
Many Iranians, including Kurds and other ethnic groups envision an Iran that values inclusion, distributes power fairly, and builds strong alliances with democratic nations, particularly in the West.
The Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI) advocates federalism as the best path for a post-regime Iran.
Over 40 years of resistance have cost the PDKI dearly—thousands of members lost, countless supporters imprisoned, and leaders assassinated in Europe by the Iranian regime. Despite these
sacrifices, the movement endures, driven by the hope of a democratic and peaceful Iran.
With a new US administration, questions arise about how Iran will respond. Will the regime succumb to the demands of a maximum pressure campaign, as it did when it “drank the poison” during previous negotiations? Or will it attempt to dig in and resist? Either way, it
faces a losing battle. The Iranian people, emboldened by the regime’s growing weakness, are closer than ever to rising up and demanding their legitimate rights.
Diplomacy alone will not achieve peace with the Iranian regime. Dictatorships only respond to firm and uncompromising action. 2025 may be a turning point, as the Iranian people stand poised to topple their unpopular government. The international community must not squander this golden opportunity to support the Iranian people in dismantling this oppressive regime and building a democratic, inclusive future.
That would not only bring peace and stability to its people but also contribute to a safer and more prosperous Middle East. The Kurds, along with other Iranian minorities, stand ready to play a vital role in this long overdue transformation.
Iran has long been a byword for ruthless repression at home and imperialist aggression abroad but is an ancient civilisation with a learned and dynamic people who deserve better and can do much to reshape Iran and the Middle East for the better.
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