On Monday Progressive Britain hosted the Defence in Review Conference in collaboration with the Freeman Air and Space Institute and Saab to bring together Parliamentarians, Armed Forces practitioners and experts, academics, and industry experts to discuss the defence policy challenges facing the new Labour Government.
Whilst Keir Starmer’s changed Labour Party recognises the importance of a strong defence policy, our alliances, and the need for effective deterrence, the geopolitical situation facing the UK is increasingly complex and uncertain. The latest Strategic Defence Review launched in July provides the Government with the opportunity to set the tone for how Labour approaches defence in the 2020s and beyond. Whilst defence is not explicitly mentioned as one of Labour’s five missions, it contributes to all aspects of the Government’s mission-driven agenda.
The stakes cannot be higher. We heard from participants that whilst the cost of getting deterrence right may be high, the cost of getting deterrence wrong is inconceivable. The World Bank, United Nations, and European Commission estimated in April 2024 that the cost of rebuilding Ukraine is $486 billion – a number that has since risen and will only rise further as Putin’s invasion approaches its third year.
However, merely possessing deterrence capabilities is not sufficient. Lessons must be drawn from failures of Western foreign policy since the end of the Cold War that have emboldened autocrats like Putin. Nations opposed to the rules-based international order are increasingly preparing to fight tomorrow’s war, whereas nations in the West have been slow to move on from the previous War on Terror. Several speakers highlighted the need to be ruthlessly pragmatic in recognising new realities, instead of succumbing to romantic sentimentality, especially with regards to Armed Forces procurement.
It is also increasingly unclear where battlelines will be drawn as evidenced by recent revelations that Russia provided coordinates of US battleships to the Houthis. The next war may not begin with Russian boots crossing into NATO territory but will be deliberately cloaked in the grey zone below the threshold of conflict. Neither is this limited to the material realm, as disinformation and other active measures aim to deliver victory without a shot fired. This lack of certainty also extends to our allies. Regardless of the US election result the dominant NATO ally finds itself increasingly occupied with China and the Indo-Pacific leaving European nations needing to pick up the slack.
Whilst the challenges we face may seem daunting, our values demand that we face them with innovative, dynamic, and resilient solutions. Participants noted that defence was designated as one of eight growth-driving sectors in the recent Industrial Strategy Green Paper, Invest 2035. Defence is an industry where government playing a coordinating role bringing together industry around key goals has an established history and can contribute to several of the five Labour missions simultaneously. The groundwork is already in place, for example Saab operate eight UK sites employing over 600 people, it is now up to the Government to direct and collaborate in a mutually beneficial fashion. Investment in defence stimulates growth, incentives can be made to help realise green targets for example research and development investment into more efficient fuels, and can create opportunities across the nation to overcome socio-economic barriers for example investment in shipbuilding.
Furthermore, the Securonomics agenda also highlights that security extends further than just the defence industry – investment in domestic green energy capacity will also allow the UK to achieve energy independence and no longer be reliant on fossil fuels from nations like Russia, with the possibility of clean British energy helping to power the continent to undermine a key plank of Putin’s leverage.
The US increasingly focusing on the Indo-Pacific also presents an opportunity for Britain to provide leadership and direction to multilateral alliances such as NATO, but also through bilateral relations such as the recent Trinity House agreement with Germany. However, Britain should also have the confidence to pursue relationships and defence agreements with all nations that share our values, especially outside of Europe where Russia, China, and Iran are making inroads with historically non-aligned nations.
A final theme stressed by participants is how to communicate to a public that don’t want war the price of securing peace. Public opinion is currently a significant barrier to further European unity on defence policy – 64% of the public oppose spending 2.5% of GDP on defence (a manifesto commitment) if it required reduced spending on the NHS. However, welfare without security is vulnerable and the Government needs to be able to communicate the benefits of prioritising security – such as achieving energy independence bringing down people’s energy bills being a clear and tangible upside.
Labour has a strong tradition of championing defence, with Ernest Bevin being the driving force behind the foundation of NATO. Whilst the circumstances facing the Labour Government are at their most challenging since the Cold War, understanding them and being able to devise solutions that also contribute to mission-driven government can bridge the divide between domestic and foreign policy to make Britain secure at home and our allies secure abroad. The Defence in Review Conference was the beginning of this vital work.
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